The Grady Rose Interpretation

Clown Show - Chapter 1

2009-12-29T12:17:00.000-08:00

Clown Show

Part 1 - Enthusiasm

Chapter 1

May, 1989

For everyone else, this was supposed to be a banner day, a career-defining day, a zesty feature in Ad Age day. The entire National Package Delivery team at Leonetti & Washer, minus the creatives, was parading up to White Plains to present the media plan for the upcoming fiscal year, July to June, highlighted by a shiny new, fairly innovative sports promotion. Getting client approval on the cooler shit was invaluable to generate some new business interest, award potential, and to elevate morale, especially for the Media team. It was also Ian's turn to hold the check on the way back to the office at 200 Fifth Avenue - the monthly fees NPD owed the agency, a little more than $6 million. Count your lucky fucking stars.

Ian McManus was one of three planners on the agency's second biggest account and he didn't buy into the thrill of being the payment delivery boy. It only served to hammer home the indentured servant-like conditions of his employment. Most recently, it was six straight weeks of monkey work: pulling competitive ad spending data until 10 pm, all to support $70 million in Print, Radio, Newspaper, Out-of-Home, and TV ad buy recommendations. Yet guidance from said research would be trumped within about, oh 8 minutes, by the client, CMO Mitch O’Connor, and his unassailable business logic. So, a $23k salary over 2,500 hours a year meant Ian enjoyed the privilege of being told he was useless for about $9.20/hour. And here's the head-up, shoulders-back pinch of goodness: Ian's title was just bumped up to Planner from Assistant Planner. There wasn't any legitimate change in role or responsibility, just a loss of $5k in gross income because he would no longer get any overtime pay.

Justifiably, Ian was also the definition of hungover that morning. Once the presentations were put to bed, he went to a Rolling Stone magazine party at the new Ritz on 54th (where Studio 54 used to be) the previous night. The open bar was fully embraced. Ian brought his roommate, Steve Concord, who made the brilliant decision to bypass the main bar for a side bar on the 2nd floor. Shots of JD with Bud chasers went down way too easy, with no wait for subsequent rounds. Shit, they even introduced themselves twice to Axl Rose, the evening's special guest of honor. Much shorter in person - he was maybe 5' 6".

His attitude was made worse by the sycophantic cheerleading Ian endured after he was blessed with the duty of carrying the check. Matt Ellery, the effervescent toady on the account team, was actually envious of Ian. Bursting with Tennessee hickness, Matt constantly reminded Ian of this huge honor and insisted on high-fiving him about every 3 miles.

Ian wondered, "I should wipe my ass with this check, to see if Accounts Receivable would still deposit the money."

The only one in worse shape than Ian was Dennis Thurber - the agency's head of Network TV buying. While the Upfront negotiations were intense, they took 2 weeks to close. The window for big sports sponsorships was 3 days at most. Dennis had been up for 36 hours straight, juggling 4 possible deals for NPD. He locked up a $5 million Monday Night Football commitment just 45 minutes ago. But the package he had brewing with CBS was what had Dennis twitching. Pending verbal approval today of the $12 million buy, he could mellow to some state of equilibrium. Dennis inhaled his third coffee seconds before entering NPD headquarters. To the untrained eye, he was a nebish, soft-spoken and frail. But when negotiating, Dennis was brilliant, becoming possessed and taking the responsibility personally. He fed off the pompous swagger of the network sales VPs. The buys Dennis crafted were like his children.

During the drive up to Westchester County, Ian weighed the plusses of his job. There wasn't a concert or sporting event in the New York area he couldn't score tickets to, for free. Ian derived fleeting moments of pride when he could at least point to campaigns he worked on. He'd kill himself if he was working on a kitty litter or feminine hygiene account. The agency was one step removed from college, especially for the big magazine parties and co-ed softball games. There seemed to be a requirement that one out of three of the female employees under 30 had to range from really cute to hot. Office romances weren't just tolerated but borderline encouraged. And he didn't dread the effort of getting to work because he genuinely liked most of the people he toiled with.

No, Ian was struggling with the charade of the media planning and buying roles at an agency. Art directors and copy writers could dazzle narcissistic clients with clever imagery and frothy storytelling, and cling to negligible loss of integrity. Account guys slept soundly thinking they were an extension of the vision, just one layer removed from the client’s unquestioned genius. But media spend was the cornerstone of billings. Yet, in 1989, what differentiated L&W’s media strategy from what Ogilvy or Lintas would suggest for NPD? “You need to reach business decision makers – I’d go with Fortune, Forbes, Business Week and WSJ.” Just brilliant.

Running Tally - January 28, 2009

2009-01-28T10:30:00.000-08:00

It's been more than 2 weeks since the last announcement, but given what's happening at Conde Nast, and the larger economic issues, another "style magazine centered on home", was bound to fail. Look for more closures from this publisher and certainly from this category.

Publications
Country Home Magazine
Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Plenty
Domino

Total Print Circulation Loss
2,773,451

Running Tally - January 13, 2009

2009-01-13T15:22:00.000-08:00

Not even an environmentally conscious pub is safe. Plenty will not just cease as a print vehicle, but the Web site will be shuttered too.

Publications
Country Home Magazine
Seattle Post-Intelligencer
Plenty

Total Circulation Loss
1,923,451

Running Tally - January 10, 2009

2009-01-10T18:30:00.000-08:00

I'm going to go ahead and call this one, and add newspapers to my list. Another Hearst property goes down.

Publications
Country Home Magazine
Seattle Post-Intelligencer

Total Circulation Loss
1,723,451

Running Tally - January 8, 2009

2009-01-08T13:00:00.000-08:00

I will post an ongoing list of pubs (and their circs) that disapper in the next 12 months. At this rate, we may see 50 big magazine titles swimming with the fishes by year's end.

Magazine; Circulation
Country Home; 1,300,000

Exhale

2009-01-03T18:15:00.000-08:00

Merry New Year!

I've taken quite a few months off from posting - not due to any grand scheme, just sitting back and oberserving the dizzying string of events since mid '08 and finding that the dozen or so starts of my ramblings were rendered irrelevant 12 hours later. Not that there weren't a few "I told you so moments" - both well-publicized (Tribune, as well as the inevitable demise of most large newspaper firms) and less visible (long overdue forced exits, hollow business models exposed, et al).

My take on the legacy media/marketing carnage is that it had to happen. Decades of blind faith in specious audience delivery hit the wall just when budgets evaporated, period. And we're not done. Will advertisers magically return to higher CPM/lower viewed vehicles when there's more pressure on fewer dollars to drive measurable results? I can see 20+ well-known magazine titles disappear by this time next year. Not a huge leap, I've seen more dire predictions, but you have to admire the denial still in place. Admittedly, I like taking print media to the whipping post - multiple attempts at trying to right the Titanic tend to stick with you.

But consider this: Looking for a safe haven, even with fewer overall dollars, marketers will increase spending online in '09 but they will insist on locking up sure things, as best as possible. I believe we'll see an even greater split between quality inventory (trusted outlets with scale and superior operations) and "the pretenders". There will be much closer scrutiny placed on perceived CPM value at branded publishers which still treat digital as value add. And the speed at which the much-anticipated collapse of dozens, if not hundreds, of ad networks will be stunning.

However, the sheer volume of cheap online ad units will entice marketers to gobble up tonnage. The crime will be that too many advertisers will pigeon-hole these campaigns as narrow direct-response when they should be experimenting with brand impact in a low cost environment.

My hope is that after a tightly clenched Q1, savvy marketers will step back and begin to align their combined outbound executions with smarter site analytics to develop the right collective digital visbility instead of pitting one site, one creative unit or one keyword vs. another. Challenge Atlas, DoubleClick and Omniture to determine which combinations of search + social media + email + display translate into the highest value customers. Not just instant post-click e-commerce only customers, but latent online visitors (including existing customers) who could close across all sales channels.

After exhaling, that's what I would do.

A New Mission

2008-05-30T11:08:00.000-07:00

Instead of only providing a monthly critique of insipid decisions in the digital media world, it dawned on me that I had to do more. But I was missing a catalyst, a rationale for posting more frequently. Well, today I am freshly inspired.

I'm announcing a new feature to the blog - "Affirmations for the Digital Amateur". Why am I embarking on this effort? After almost 15 years in online marketing and media, I felt it was my duty to supply much needed guidance to the truly clueless in our space. Who are these hapless souls? Not the junior-level staff members busting their collective asses every day. No, the beneficiaries will be the Directors and VPs granted ownership of some piece of digital P&L despite not having any experience in the field and amazingly are asked to manage a staff. Enjoy.

Affirmation for Friday, May 30th -The Right Way to Build Your Team

Your team is a reflection of you, so build your team in your own image. As such, you want to aim for incompetent sycophants. Getting someone who is either worthless or a toady will suffice, but the real trick is landing staffers who display strength in both traits.

Avoid hiring people who've actually worked in your same industry. What insight or value could they possibly provide? All information on the business, no matter how banal or trite, must be filtered through you. Play the wild card. For example, if you need a seasoned consumer e-commerce Telecom veteran, what better source than a B2B chemical company to fill the role?

Conversely, having ambitious, experienced talent on your team will only slow you down. With their work ethic, and history of delivering results, naturally you'll feel threatened. Do your best to marginalize their impact. If they're smart, they will find more compelling work outside of the intelligence-sapping environment you've built.

If these interlopers continue to make progress in spite your ineptitude, then every communication to them from you should be a lie. Dishonesty is the only way to maintain your relevancy to the organization. Take credit for their innovations. Hang them out to dry with other internal departments. Promise to go to bat for them, and then bad-mouth them to anyone who will listen, even after they've left your team.

Next: Picking the Right Vendors - The Objective Way to Advance your Education

The Definition of "Clown Show"

2008-04-08T17:56:00.000-07:00

Sorry for the long absence. There have almost been too many items to chime in on. For the record, I believe Yahoo caves and will ultimately be very grateful for the MSFT offer in light of Q1's numbers. Take AOL's implosion to the bank - cue Bugsy Siegel trying to sell 300% of the Flamingo. And I'm curious if Michael Barrett was spending most of his time at FIM herding cats - he's too smart to sit by and let the pezzonovante dictate his fate.

Speaking of which, I've observed, and started to chuckle in disbelief, at the gyrations underway at Tribune in the face of massive financial challenges. And despite the death spiral well underway at NYT, Gannett and McClatchy, you've got to hand it to a firm that hands off its digital strategy to half a dozen exiles from a dying medium WHO HAVE ABSOLUTLEY NO ONLINE EXPERIENCE. Who decreed Clear Channel as the Wharton for Interactive? Point me to a business in the online arena that Randy Michaels has salvaged, let alone turned a profit. This debacle will reach cartoon-like proportions and the Tribune employees footing the bulk of the bill should start penning B-School case studies of what not to do.

But more broadly, I have to throw the flag on this most deadly of combinations here: arrogance and ignorance. It is phenomenally insulting for those of us who have been in online media for 10+ years that admitted amateurs are given the authority, and $250k+ salaries, to navigate and determine policy through the digital landscape. The CCU pipeline must be frothing at the mouth like free agents signing with the Redskins - nod along and get paid BIG. Yet ask yourself this question: would the reverse be at all possible? Will Sam Zell annoint of a VP from Digitas or Google with the role of running his printing presses? More re-arranging of deck chairs...

Build vs. Bureaucracy; 3 Good Bets

2008-01-25T08:00:00.000-08:00

Wow - what a week.

Sean Finnegan leaves OMD for Vibrant Media.

Nick Pahade jumps to GSI Commerce from Publicis.

Chris Saridakis is given the reins at Gannett Digital.

Giants make the Superbowl! Sorry, I digress...but I LOVE the GMen to cover +12.

My hat is off to these leaders in the Digital media space taking on new, and in one case monumental, challenges. Given their combined track records, the smart money is on all of them to succeed tremendously.

While each has stepped into a unique opportunity, the common thread is that they have chosen paths in which they will be rewarded by NOT tolerating the outdated bureaucracies in which traditional media & marketing execs have tried to pigeon-hole Digital. They don't have time to kowtow to legacies or wade through layers of tepid decision-making defended by "...that's not how we do it here." I fully expect to see bold moves made by these gentlemen and frankly, to see some sacred cows shown the door.

If Vegas put out odds on Sean, Nick and Chris, I wouldn't bet against them.

Seasons Best

2007-12-24T08:56:00.000-08:00

A happy christmas to all! Special thoughts go out to the Murphy family at this time of year. We miss you Murph.

Turning the Corner...

2007-12-04T18:08:00.000-08:00

I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm, but I have to admit that following some digestion and analysis, it's encouraging to see recent developments in digital media taking hold as legitimate marketing strategies for 2008 and beyond. I have a very high bar for accepting the latest and greatest beyond fad status, and our industry is indeed susceptible to premature judgements largely due to the technology-fueled innovation. But recent events, even those producing negative reactions (i.e. Facebook's Beacon, the Writer's strike), only serve to emphasize that the shift to digital media consumption can no longer be ignored by the parties which have made token investments in the platform. My attempt at a look ahead for next years is as follows:

Over the past few years, I've often asked the question: "What does it take?" for major marketers, traditional media and agencies/PR firms to NOT dismiss digital as a rounding error. "What don't they understand?" For some of the larger publishers, it may be too late even for panicking - a 40% drop in your share price within 12 months will do that - because moving at Internet speed just is not in their DNA. The next phase of valiant, yet inevitable online flailings by the local print and broadcast gatekeepers probably won't happen until '09. The obligatory expectation to salvage '08 through Campaign and Olympic dollars will keep the denial alive for another year. While the agency holding companies, to score some semblance of relevancy, are knee deep in getting healthy in the online channel, whatever the cost. For those digital specialty firms weighing offers from suitors dangling ridiculous multiples, happy holidays.

I've tended to give Consumer packaged Goods companies a pass for one simple fact: they can't sell their wares directly online. As much as many of us in the business have expected CPG's to monetize their digital efforts in indirect ways, by design or default, it hasn't happened. Some recent activity borders on the cartoonish, stengthening the belief that there really isn't much of a reason to go to a toothpaste, cookie or soft drink Web site. But that's not to say that these big spenders can't package up the best nuggets and let them be shared across the Web. As the use of social networks expands to all demographics, I believe CPG's will start to embrace Widgets as vehicles for trackable Word of Mouth brand endorsement online, simply because the numbers are too large to disavow. The plummeting performances of FSI's and TV, coupled with the advanced viral analytics of Widget campaigns, will force CPG's to make a significant commitment to digital marketing in '08.

Sadly there is still too much fiefdom building by amateurs who own the online P&L - the 20-year Direct Mail or Call-Center vet, the ceremonially appointed print exec, or the back-end operations manager looking to round out a resume. Especially on the Marketer side, this problem is rampant. I can't really fault the people stepping into these roles - I applaud their ambition and recognition of a changing business landscape. No, the worst transgression is letting this ignorance continue. It's an admission by senior management that the Web really isn't that important to the company. Most hypocritically for firms that actually sell Internet-based services, would this on-the-job training be allowed if the roles were reversed? Could a Web designer, for example, be expected to run TeleSales in his spare time? Hire some professionals who have done it before and give them the reins.

Here's to a great 2008!

A little perspective

2007-10-15T13:16:00.000-07:00

Please forgive my lack of posting for almost 3 weeks. I just started consulting for a start-up, so it's been a little hectic.

Conveniently, following the OMMA show in September, the ANA (Association of National Advertisers) held its annual meeting late last week in Phoenix.

What strikes me in looking at the 2 events is the long-standing claim by traditional marketers of the lack of digital talent. Really? Does this position still hold water? Could the CMO's in Phoenix not find one or two suitable people at OMMA who might be experienced in behavioral targeting, social media or widget-based advertising? I guess all of those people working at Facebook, Tremor Media or Omniture couldn't possibly bring any value to the ANA membership.

Bottom line, there is not a lack of digital talent, rather a lack of opportunities with traditional marketers for digital talent to be put into positions to enact genuine change. And since nature abhors a vacuum, the next generation of brilliant marketers are forging their own paths with start-up ventures, not with organizations still dropping 80% of their ad budgets into TV, newspaper and DM.

Off to NYC

2007-09-23T09:36:00.000-07:00

On Tuesday, Sept. 25th, I'll be in New York to attend the OMMA and Mixx conferences as part of Advertising Week. It will be a chance to catch up with old friends in the digital marketing business, network with some new connections and learn what the leaders in our space are doing to stay ahead of the pack. I'll share my observations here and potentially on iMediaConnection.com.

Going into the events, especially as media budgets are now being set for '08, I'm curious to match the level of the discourse to the attendees. In the past, I've always made a point to determine how many corporate decision-makers actually go to these shows. For the most part, it's been mimimal participation from this group. Yet this year has a different energy in the air. The massive changes in the digital media environment, both in the types of new offerings available (widgets, expanded social network opportunities, beyond pre-roll video, etc.) and property ownership switches (too many to rattle off) demand more first-hand involvement from SVP's and CMO's, vs. reliance on filtered re-caps from agency or staff surrogates.

We shall see.

Just Stop

2007-09-12T10:16:00.000-07:00

For the second time in nine months, I was courted by one of the major PR firms in Washington, DC to lead and build a Digital practice (needing a "visionary" as one of the execs told me, "someone to teach us Greek" said another) only to be told it was going with someone more "tactically focused," i.e. cheaper.

Now I'm not sure that the position in either instance was an ideal fit, and all of us who are veterans in the online space have "tail wagging the dog" war stories. But it occurred to me that even in 2007, my recent experience is all too familiar, and perhaps I can help reduce, if not eliminate, these pesky scenarios.

First, it's all right to come clean, in fact, it would be refreshing. Spare us the charade and own up - we know you really don't want to do this. Admit that you're too scared, unwilling or out of touch to embrace Digital channels as major components of your businesses. But please, I beg you please, do us all a favor and stop blathering in your jargon-filled speeches, poorly designed Web sites and cookie-cutter press releases about your commitment to Digital marketing and media when you are in no way willing to invest in the disciplines. It's not a secret that you don't want to hire legitimate talent or re-assign budget to upgrade your technological capabilities. Focus on playing caretaker to your dying conventional practices, which haven't changed for decades. Just get out of the way and please discontinue doing the following:

For Senior Management in Traditional Media -

Stop awarding your Digital Executive positions to toe-the-line internal cronies who have spent the past 20 years strictly on the traditional side.

Stop prefacing every idea about pursuing a Digital initiative with the question: "But what will this do to the mother ship?"

Stop telling us you're working on becoming "truly platform agnostic" when you have no appreciation for the speed at which you need to move.

Stop disavowing the insights of Jeff Jarvis and Dave Morgan.

For Advertising Agencies & PR Firms -

Stop interviewing Digital leaders to join your company when all you only have the stomach and budget for is a non-threatening, junior-level department of one that you expect to perform miracles immediately.

Stop believing you can extend the classic bait-and-switch tactic of trying to land new business then staffing the account - when it comes to Digital the reverse is true.

Stop limiting your considerations for planning, executing and measuring Digital campaign performance because you can't grasp the value of providing best in class reporting.

Stop listening to Joseph Jaffe.

For Corporate Marketing Departments -

Stop treating the Digital channels, in which your prospects and customers are spending more time, as a moonlighting gig for your traditional marcom and media personnel.

Stop allowing inept Web Operations gatekeepers to dictate your online branding and user experience environment; this isn't a space for amateurs looking for on-the-job training.

Stop enabling the heroin-like addiction to bloated, unaccountable Direct Mail expenditure, as performance continues to plummet, because "I just know it works".

Stop ignoring the guidance of Bob Garfield.

How much do lemmings go for these days?

2007-09-06T12:45:00.000-07:00

Great piece in WSJ today on whether the blizzard (not flurry) of online ad "solutions" acquisitions will actually pay off.

I contend WPP's purchase of 24/7 Real Media (for an unbelievabe $649 million) will be far and away the most disastrous of these deals. A buy-side owner now hyping in-house sell-side products is inherently flawed and screams conflict of interest.

From the article: "WPP executives say 24/7 Real Media should continue to expand quickly by selling services to WPP's existing clients."

So how does that pitch go? "Listen, I know you're happy with Atlas for ad serving, ValueClick for network inventory and iCrossing for SEM, but dump all that and use our new toys for the sake of convenience."

Just sprinting off the cliff...

Leaking Oil?

2007-09-05T05:39:00.000-07:00

The spin Yahoo is attaching to its purchase of BlueLithium puzzles me. My expectation was that BL's primary value was as a nice extension to the RightMedia exchange and YPN (Yahoo Publisher Network), with a baseline price established by the Tacoda sale to AOL. But the release yesterday emphasized that BL extends Yahoo's "...ability to deliver powerful data analytics, advanced targeting and innovative media buying strategies to our customers," i.e. behavioral targeting. All good, but wasn't SmartAds supposed to do this?

So I have to ask:

If you're an advertiser, does BlueLithium replace SmartAds, or will you be presented 2 BT platforms when Yahoo comes calling?
If you're a Yahoo shareholder, does this move make sense or smack of desperation at the halfway point of the 100-day turnaround?

The Summer Wind...

2007-08-26T13:43:00.000-07:00

It's been a roller-coaster spring and summer. Professionally, I went through an arduous yet rewarding engagement with Comcast as Director, E-Commerce & Online Marketing. What was originally positioned as a permanent role transitioned into a consulting gig. That issue aside, and despite 6 months of a daily commute from Washington, DC to Philly, I thoroughly enjoyed the experience.

More importantly, I lost one of my best friends and the best man at our wedding, Peter Murphy. I miss him terribly, not just because I knew him since Day 1 Freshman year at Georgetown, but because Murph lived life to the fullest, and he represented everything a good husband and great dad should be. If there are any lessons to be learned from his passing, they are to embrace your passions and never get cheated when pursuing your dreams.

Rest in peace Murph.

Quality Time

2007-08-23T11:16:00.000-07:00

This past month of August I've been spending some much needed time with my wife and daughters. I will be returning to the working world in the very near future. This is a very exciting time in the media/marketing field. For those of you who need a solid springboard from the beach or pool back into the post Labor Day madness, I highly recommend David Verklin's book: "Watch This, Listen Up, Click Here". I'm writing a review of the book for iMediaconnection.com.